Onshore wind has been instrumental in the Scotland's renewable energy transition so far – now the sector faces a period of adjustment under the Clean Power 2030 Action Plan (CP30).

This plan sets regional capacity ranges for various renewable technologies, and the proposed limits for onshore wind in Scotland have sparked considerable debate within the sector.

CP30 is a response to the foundational shift that has occurred since renewables overtook fossil fuels as the main source of electricity generation in the UK. When the current electricity grid was designed this was primarily powered by a small number of large power stations which were in relatively close proximity to major population centres. By contrast, the majority of wind and solar farms constructed in the past 25 years have been much smaller, numerous and located in more remote locations.

In response, Labour and the National Energy System Operator NESO aim to encourage more onshore wind development closer to demand centres in England and Wales. By reducing their reliance on renewable energy from Scotland (where generational capacity from onshore wind is high but transmission capacity is low), the UK Government aims to reduce capital expenditure on new transmission infrastructure required to bring electricity from Scotland to the UK’s major population centres in southern and central England.

However, questions remain over the viability of significantly increasing onshore wind in England and Wales, owing to lower wind resources, higher population densities and greater competition between different land uses. It remains to be seen how the public reacts to this policy.

From a Scottish perspective, there is a potential that some projects exceeding the allocated capacity may face delays or even lose their existing grid connection agreements, potentially reshaping the future landscape of onshore wind development in Scotland. While the impact of these reforms on the sector remains to be seen, we could see developers being more selective in their approaches to landowners, resulting in a lower number of projects.

Further, if the total number of consented projects decreases, we could see an acceleration in the timescales associated with project development, and a higher proportion of projects successfully reaching construction.

These factors would require a greater emphasis on site promotion to developers, along with a change in market dynamics that could impact on commercial terms.